A Word of Explanation

Welcome to my political commentary blog. I figured I’d use this introduction to explain how I arrived at writing this blog. I grew up as a Conservative Republican and went through college and law school essentially holding to those beliefs. Being an Evangelical Christian as well, I would have been considered a member of the Religious Right. However, over the last few years, I became increasingly disillusioned by the Republican party. For instance, I believe in conservative fiscal policy, so I could not agree with continuing massive tax cuts aimed at the wealthiest Americans while the country had a serious budget deficit which was only increasing due to fighting two wars. I am also a firm believer in the rule of law, so I took issue with the Bush administration using the cloak of national security to deny habeas corpus rights. Finally, the politics of fear & division used by the Bush political team, turned me off. Especially, their use of the War in Iraq, which I now believe was a major mistake.

In 2008, this caused me to do what 5 years before, I would have thought to be the unthinkable – I voted for a Democrat for President. In supporting Barack Obama and since I am an advocate by trade, I decided to write a political essay setting forth my rationale. I enjoyed the process so much, I was looking for an outlet to continue my political thoughts. When my cousin started a personal blog, it gave me the idea to start a political commentary blog.

Like the name suggests, I still consider my self a conservative as many of my political stands are conservative, but I definitely have a more progressive line of thinking. You should see both sides come out as I post. Some of the posts will be more analysis while others will be more editorial and take a position. I look forward to any feedback. Let me know if there is a topic you would like me to discuss (see my contact info at the bottom of this page).


Monday, September 3, 2012

State of the Race – September 3 (Labor Day Edition)

Let's take a look at where the race stands as we conclude the Labor Day weekend. Of course, this weekend also represents the halftime for the two conventions as the Republican Convention concluded Thursday night and the Democratic Convention begins tomorrow night. As of right now, I calculate the electoral math as follows:



If you want to see a visual breakdown of where states fall, see the photo above or click here for a map. Obviously, the darker the shade of blue or red, then the safer that state is for that candidate. If you want to see how I arrived at these categories, I would encourage you to review the first “State of the Race” post I did on August 11 which can be found here.

The only changes from last week to this week was New Jersey moving from “Likely Obama” to “Safe Obama” and Missouri moved back from “Lean Romney” to “Likely Romney.” There were some minor changes within the categories, but the map is relatively static at this point.  Initially, I would note that any bounce that Romney would receive from the Republican Convention will not show up until next week's review of the race. Likewise, any bounce that Obama receives from the Democratic Convention will not show up until I post in two weeks. This is due to the fact that it takes the polls some time in the various states to start showing any movement and generally it is agreed that a week after an event, the polling will reflect any movement in the race.

As for the lack of movement in the race since I've been doing this, I would only suggest that it is largely due to the fact that most of the impressionable electorate has not engaged in this race yet. Surely there are a lot of people who are following this race on a day-to-day basis, but those people are generally the ones who have already made up their mind and/or are political junkies like me. They say that the general election starts in earnest after Labor Day, so it's very appropriate that I would be talking about this issue on that day. Ultimately, over the next two weeks as we see the results of any convention bounces and whether the polls start to move, this will tell us if that axiom has some truth.

Next week, I'll try and do a wrap-up of the two conventions and where I think this sets the race for the remainder of the general election.

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