A Word of Explanation

Welcome to my political commentary blog. I figured I’d use this introduction to explain how I arrived at writing this blog. I grew up as a Conservative Republican and went through college and law school essentially holding to those beliefs. Being an Evangelical Christian as well, I would have been considered a member of the Religious Right. However, over the last few years, I became increasingly disillusioned by the Republican party. For instance, I believe in conservative fiscal policy, so I could not agree with continuing massive tax cuts aimed at the wealthiest Americans while the country had a serious budget deficit which was only increasing due to fighting two wars. I am also a firm believer in the rule of law, so I took issue with the Bush administration using the cloak of national security to deny habeas corpus rights. Finally, the politics of fear & division used by the Bush political team, turned me off. Especially, their use of the War in Iraq, which I now believe was a major mistake.

In 2008, this caused me to do what 5 years before, I would have thought to be the unthinkable – I voted for a Democrat for President. In supporting Barack Obama and since I am an advocate by trade, I decided to write a political essay setting forth my rationale. I enjoyed the process so much, I was looking for an outlet to continue my political thoughts. When my cousin started a personal blog, it gave me the idea to start a political commentary blog.

Like the name suggests, I still consider my self a conservative as many of my political stands are conservative, but I definitely have a more progressive line of thinking. You should see both sides come out as I post. Some of the posts will be more analysis while others will be more editorial and take a position. I look forward to any feedback. Let me know if there is a topic you would like me to discuss (see my contact info at the bottom of this page).


Saturday, August 25, 2012

State of the Race – August 25

I don’t have to time this weekend to post a full analysis, but I at least wanted to put this week’s electoral counts up.  Here is the tally as we head into next week’s Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL.



If you want to see a visual breakdown of where states fall, see the photo above or click here for a map. Obviously, the darker the shade of blue or red, then the safer that state is for that candidate. (If you want to see how I arrived at these categories, I would encourage you to review the post I did on August 11 which can be found here.)

Once again, a lot of the movement is towards the center as Michigan, Missouri and Nevada all moved from likely to lean (Michigan and Nevada for Obama and Missouri for Romney).  The other move is Colorado and Virginia moving from toss-up to lean Obama. The end result is Obama widens his lead a bit while Romney remains steady at 191 which is where he’s been since I started looking at this.

As we move through the conventions the next two weeks, we’ll see how much movement there is in the states, and next week I’ll look at how the Republican National Convention has started to move us into the final push of the campaign.


  1. Hey Coop,

    What leads you to believe the 270towin site is the best map to use? A few polls and predictors came out this week supporting Romney as the likely winner. Did you see the findings of the 2 guys from Colorado? Their model has nailed every election since Reagan in '80, and that model shows Romney with a win almost as big as Obama had over McCain. Thoughts? Andy

  2. When I started this, I explained that I liked 270towin because they collect polling data from numerous sources including: Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Purple Strategies, NBC News/Marist, Fox News, Survey USA and Public Policy. Also, I had used them in 2008 and the final prediction I was looking at was almost dead on.

    Finally, this whole thing is a process and this election will still go through changes. As a result, anyone who is making a prediction now is being premature in my mind. We haven't had the conventions or the debates yet. My purpose in doing this is too track things as we go through the fall. Believe me, I don't think for 1 minute that Romney is only going to get 191 electoral votes. I think it will be a LOT closer.