I don’t have to time this weekend to post a full
analysis, but I at least wanted to put this week’s electoral counts up. Here is the tally as we head into next week’s
Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL.
|
|
Safe
|
Likely
|
Lean
|
Total
|
|
Obama
|
158
|
63
|
76
|
297
|
|
Romney
|
147
|
34
|
10
|
191
|
|
Tossup
|
|
|
|
50
|
If you want to see a visual breakdown of where states
fall, see the photo above or click here
for a map. Obviously, the darker the shade of blue or red, then the safer that
state is for that candidate. (If you want to see how I arrived at these
categories, I would encourage you to review the post I did on August 11 which
can be found here.)
Once again, a lot of the movement is towards the center
as Michigan, Missouri and Nevada all moved from likely to lean (Michigan and
Nevada for Obama and Missouri for Romney).
The other move is Colorado and Virginia moving from toss-up to lean
Obama. The end result is Obama widens his lead a bit while Romney remains
steady at 191 which is where he’s been since I started looking at this.
As we move through the conventions the next two weeks, we’ll
see how much movement there is in the states, and next week I’ll look at how
the Republican National Convention has started to move us into the final push
of the campaign.
Hey Coop,
ReplyDeleteWhat leads you to believe the 270towin site is the best map to use? A few polls and predictors came out this week supporting Romney as the likely winner. Did you see the findings of the 2 guys from Colorado? Their model has nailed every election since Reagan in '80, and that model shows Romney with a win almost as big as Obama had over McCain. Thoughts? Andy
When I started this, I explained that I liked 270towin because they collect polling data from numerous sources including: Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Purple Strategies, NBC News/Marist, Fox News, Survey USA and Public Policy. Also, I had used them in 2008 and the final prediction I was looking at was almost dead on.
ReplyDeleteFinally, this whole thing is a process and this election will still go through changes. As a result, anyone who is making a prediction now is being premature in my mind. We haven't had the conventions or the debates yet. My purpose in doing this is too track things as we go through the fall. Believe me, I don't think for 1 minute that Romney is only going to get 191 electoral votes. I think it will be a LOT closer.