State of the Race – September 22 (Is this Election 47% over?)

Once again there has been another abun-dance of polling. Since last week's post, there have been 62 polls done in 20 different states, including 46 polls done in the 11 battleground states that I've identified previously. So with the new polling, here's the breakdown currently:

	Safe	Likely	Lean	Total
Obama	179	58	95	332
Romney	133	58	15	206
Tossup				0

If you want to see how I arrived at these categories, I would encourage you to review the first “State of the Race” post I did on August 11 which can be found here. If you want to see a visual breakdown of which side states fall on, see the photo above or click here for an interactive map. Unfortunately, I'm having a problem with the app that allowed me to create the maps with the degrees of where states fell. For a list of which states fall in which categories, I provide the following chart:

	Safe	Likely	Lean
Obama	CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA	MI, MN, NM, OR, PA	CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI
Romney	AL, AK, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, TX, UT, WV, WY	AZ, IN, MO, MT, SC, SD, TN	NC
Tossup

Here are the changes from last week: Connecticut and New Jersey moved from “Likely” Obama to “Safe” Obama while New Hampshire went the other direction moving from “Likely” Obama to “Lean” Obama. On Romney's side of the ledger Indiana moved from “Safe” Romney to “Likely” Romney, but the remainder of Romney's states stayed static. Finally, the other big change from last week is that we have no states in the “Tossup” category as Iowa moved from “Tossup” to “Lean” Obama. All in all, the race still remains very static as it relates to the state polling.

Last week, I talked about the fact that many commentators believe that much of the electorate has already made up their mind. Well this week came the revelation that Governor Romney has already concluded that 47% of the electorate has made up its mind that it will vote against him. The release of the video which caught Romney making these comments came at a horrible time for the Republican nominee. Romney's campaign had been in the process of trying reset their message to focus on the details of what he would do as president to help the ailing economy. Unfortunately for him, on the same day they were going to start rolling out this message, the video showed up where Romney says that 47% of the people would not vote for him since they do not pay taxes and “who believe that they are victims”. The remainder of the week ended up being Romney trying to either explain the comments, defend them or point to comments made by then state Senator Obama regarding redistribution of wealth. In other words, Governor Romney did not accomplish anything that he wanted to in reframing his message.

As for the video clip itself, the reason it does so much damage to Romney's campaign lies in an age old political adage that gaffes especially cause you problems when they reinforce a pre-existing image problem for that candidate. The same thing happened to President Obama earlier this summer when he made the comment about small business owners, saying that they “did not build that” making it seem like he was saying that business owners did not build their businesses nor were they responsible for any success. This only served to reinforce the belief that many have that President Obama is unfriendly to business. In Romney's case, his comments reinforce the image that many have that he is a rich guy who doesn't care about poor people or at a minimum, does not understand their struggles. In fact, I found the part of the quote that was most damaging to Romney to be when he said, “My job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.” This statement suggests that he doesn't fully appreciate the fact that most Americans whose incomes are low enough that they did not pay federal income tax are still responsible citizens who earn a living and pay their bills. In fact, many of the people who do not pay federal income tax do so because their deductions and tax credits allow them to avoid a tax liability not because they are dependent on the government.

Whether this poses an ongoing problem for Governor Romney or simply is a one-week distraction remains to be seen. However, some of the state polls that were done this week were being conducted in the middle of this controversy, so it would seem that this week's Electoral College breakdown might be the low point for the Romney campaign. In other words, I'm still convinced that this election will get closer. As we move forward and into the debates at the beginning of October, we'll see if these numbers hold or if things tighten as I anticipate. Next week, I'll do a preview of the debates and how the 2004 election might provide some guidance in how this election is proceeding.

State of the Race – September 15 (And Where We Were This Time in 2008)

Last week I was bemoan-ing the lack of new polls in the states. That isn't the case this week. There have been 40 polls conducted in 20 different states, including in 8 of the 11 battleground states I identified last week. Of those battleground states I identified last week, the only three that we don’t have polling data on as of this week are IA, NV & WI. So with that new data, here's where we stand halfway through September:

	Safe	Likely	Lean	Total
Obama	158	83	85	326
Romney	144	47	15	206
Tossup				6

If you want to see a visual breakdown of where states fall, see the photo above or click here for a map. Obviously, the darker the shade of blue or red, then the safer that state is for that candidate. If you want to see how I arrived at these categories, I would encourage you to review the first “State of the Race” post I did on August 11 which can be found here.

Recently, the national polling has indicated a slight break towards President Obama and this is showing in the state-by-state polls as well. The most significant move in the past week was Florida moving from “Tossup” to “Lean Obama.” Additionally, Michigan and New Hampshire moved from “Lean Obama” to “Likely Obama.” Finally, Montana has been moved from “Safe Romney” to “Likely Romney.” This leaves Iowa as the only state still in the Tossup category and it is actually predicted at exactly a 50/50 proposition, although it should be noted that it is one of the states that has not had any state-by-state polling done this month. At this point the map continues to favor the President, but what does that mean going forward and how much movement can we expect?

Well, September 17, 2008 was the first time I did this analysis using the data from 270towin.com, so let's take a look at where things stood in mid-September 2008 versus where they stand in mid-September 2012. I reviewed the spreadsheet I had done on September 17, 2008 and here was the breakdown using the same categories and criteria that I've been using for my 2012 analysis.

	Safe	Likely	Lean	Total
Obama	126	70	59	255
McCain	106	110	31	247
Tossup				36

For a visual break-down, you can check out the photo to the right that shows the map as it stood in mid-September 2008. (Note: the total on the map reflects state electoral votes as they stand in 2012 where the chart above reflects where they were in 2008 before the 2010 census.) As I looked at the spreadsheet as it stood on that date, I find a few things remarkable. First, as I looked at McCain's states where he had at least a 90% likelihood of winning, those were all the states that he won. All the states below that threshold went to Obama – meaning that the demarcation line for the states was pretty well-established. In other words, states weren't leapfrogging over one another to move to the other side. What does this mean for 2012? It means that the likelihood that states are going to switch sides can be predicted by the other states on the continuum. For example, since Pennsylvania is my original home state, let's take a look at the likelihood it would switch and go for Governor Romney. The chances that it would go for Romney are directly related to all the states that are in Obama's column currently but are less likely to stay there. So if Pennsylvania goes for Governor Romney, we can also expect states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Virginia to go for Romney as well.

There was another thing I found remarkable as well and that is how spread out the states were across my spreadsheet. There were several states that were in each category and there appeared to be more of a likelihood of movement within the states. This was obviously seen over the next month and a half leading up to the election. The spreadsheets I've been doing for the 2012 election have never looked like that. There is certainly a cluster of states that are closer to the center, but the states on the edge have been numerous and have stayed fairly consistent. There's been a lot of talk in this election about polarization of politics in America and I think this is a reflection of that trend. This data also supports the commentators who believe that the majority of people have already made up their minds about this election and there isn't much that could happen that would change their minds at this point. Whether this is true remains to be seen.

This brings me to my final point and my final reflection on the 2008 data: there was quite a bit of movement in the 2008 election from mid-September until Election Day. Obviously, the financial crisis that hit in the second half September had a lot to do with that along with Senator McCain's reaction. Plus as I posted before, I believe the debates played a large role as well. All this means that a lot can happen between now and November 6^th and all those things could very well make the map change dramatically. This includes the debates that will be coming up and it is also making me follow the situation in the Middle East and how both President Obama and Governor Romney react to that evolving situation. In other words, no matter how rigid the electorate looks now, all of that could change in the blink of an eye – which is why I will keep monitoring the trends as we proceed through the campaign calendar.

State of the Race – September 8 (And Wrap Up of the Conventions)

With President Obama's speech on Thursday night, the conven-tion season came to a close, so let's take a look at where we are. Keep in mind, as I said last week any postconvention bounce for the candidates would not be felt for a week or two after their respective convention finished. So here is the electoral vote breakdown:

	Safe	Likely	Lean	Total
Obama	158	63	76	297
Romney	147	44	15	206
Tossup				35

If you want to see a visual breakdown of where states fall, see the photo above or click here for a map. Obviously, the darker the shade of blue or red, then the safer that state is for that candidate. If you want to see how I arrived at these categories, I would encourage you to review the first “State of the Race” post I did on August 11 which can be found here.

There are only two changes from last week as New Jersey moved from “Safe Obama” to “Likely Obama” and more significantly, North Carolina moved from tossup to “Lean Romney.” At this point, there's been very little movement in any of the states since I started doing this and this is reflected in the national polling as well, as most national polls continue to show President Obama having a narrow lead over Governor Romney, although those leads are within the margin of error. However, I also looked at the polls being used by 270towin.com and I noticed that there wasn't as much polling being done state-by-state as I would've thought. For instance, I have gone into this election paying close attention to 11 states that I feel are the true battlegrounds (CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA & WI), but only five of those states have had any polling come out since the Republican convention ended on 8/29 (CO, FL, MI, NC & OH). Therefore, it has been hard to judge what, if any, bounce Romney got as a result of his convention. Hopefully, as the election nears, state-by-state polling will pick up and we will be able to pick up on any movement that occurs in a much more timely way.

Now for some random thoughts about the two conventions:

1. Objectives Met. From what I observed, both candidates achieved one of their primary objectives. Romney has had a likability gap as people seem to prefer President Obama over Governor Romney on a personal level, so one of the Republican goals for the convention was to humanize Romney. This was effectively done especially with Ann Romney's speech and to a lesser degree with Romney's own speech.

On the Democrat's side, the gap they were dealing with was the enthusiasm gap, as Republicans are much more enthusiastic about beating Obama than the Democrats are about reelecting him. As a result, many of the speeches at the Democratic convention were designed to fire up the base including Vice President Biden and President Obama himself. Many of the criticisms I heard about President Obama's speech missed the point of what he was trying to accomplish. He wasn't necessarily trying to win over undecided voters. He was trying to make sure his voters were engaged and will show up on Election Day.

2. Upstaged. Interestingly, both candidates and their acceptance speeches seem to be upstaged. For the Republicans, Governor Romney's speech seemed to go well and accomplish a lot of what they wanted to, but it was Clint Eastwood's rant at a chair that got a majority of the press coverage in the days following. However, President Obama didn't fare much better when everyone compared his speech to former President Clinton's speech the night before.

3. Clinton's Brilliance. Speaking of former President Clinton, I would be remiss if I did not talk about his speech. I have never been a fan of the former president, but I have always thought he was an effective communicator. That was certainly on display Wednesday night. In fact, I was watching the NFL's opening game between the Cowboys and Giants when I decided to flip over and check in on what was happening with his speech. Well, the speech was just getting ready to start and I was not able to flip back to the football game until he had finished – it was that good. How good was it? Even the conservative press couldn't criticize the speech. The “worst” thing I saw someone write about it was actually a clever line saying that Clinton was a good lawyer for a guilty client. In my opinion, it was clearly the best speech of either convention.

4. Platform Nightmares. Both parties ended up having issues arise as it related to their party platforms. The Republicans had to relive the whole rape/abortion issue as the platform calls for the elimination of abortion even in the instances of rape. After the comments by Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin, the language in the Republican platform made them spend a lot more time answering questions about rape and abortion when I'm sure they would have rather been talking about the economy and their plan to fix it.

However, that was nowhere near the issues that the Democrats had with their platform as it originally did not include any reference to God nor did it have language that previously existed saying that Jerusalem was the rightful capital of Israel. After this came up in the press and the conservatives pounced on it, the Obama campaign asked the platform be amended to change those two items. When those amendments were brought up before the convention, several delegates booed as they believed the voice vote was close but the convention chair ruled that the amendments had been accepted by the delegates thereby reinserting God and Jerusalem.

Party platforms are not as important as they used to be and very little attention is paid to them, so for either party to have to spend any time discussing it with the press and answering questions about it serves as a distraction from what the parties are really attempting to do which is highlight their candidate. My guess is that both campaigns wish they would have spent more time looking at the proposed platforms ahead of time and I also think that it might change the way candidates deal with their party’s platforms in the future. Right now, platforms are generally written by party activists and don't always coincide with their candidate's views. This might be the last year that the candidates and their campaigns take a relatively hands-off approach in constructing the platform.

5. What's the Point? I'll leave you with one final thought. As I watched bits and pieces of both conventions, it made me wonder why they even have them anymore. All they do is spend a large amount of money to arrive at what was a foregone conclusion. Couldn't the whole convention be boiled down to one day? If the parties feel the need to go through the formality of actually calling the role in nominating their candidate for president, this could still be accomplished during the day with the candidate speaking that evening to accept the nomination. As I hinted at above, the party platforms mean less than they ever have, and I would say that they are downright useless and a waste of the paper they are written on. The only thing that people generally pay attention to is the speech by the candidates and perhaps a keynote address.  All the rest is just the pomp and circumstance and leftovers from a previous time when the parties actually chose their nominees at the conventions.  Don’t think they should be drastically shortened? Think about it this way – the conventions usually are four days long and this year both parties conducted their conventions in three – Republicans shorten theirs due to Hurricane Isaac and Democrats had only scheduled three due to Labor Day. And what was missed? Nothing! It's time to end these four-day infomercials where millions of dollars are spent and not much is accomplished. If either party has the guts to do this in the future, I might be inclined to vote for them regardless of which one it is.

State of the Race – September 3 (Labor Day Edition)

Let's take a look at where the race stands as we conclude the Labor Day weekend. Of course, this weekend also represents the halftime for the two conventions as the Republican Convention concluded Thursday night and the Democratic Convention begins tomorrow night. As of right now, I calculate the electoral math as follows:

	Safe	Likely	Lean	Total
Obama	172	49	76	297
Romney	147	44	0	191
Tossup				50

If you want to see a visual breakdown of where states fall, see the photo above or click here for a map. Obviously, the darker the shade of blue or red, then the safer that state is for that candidate. If you want to see how I arrived at these categories, I would encourage you to review the first “State of the Race” post I did on August 11 which can be found here.

The only changes from last week to this week was New Jersey moving from “Likely Obama” to “Safe Obama” and Missouri moved back from “Lean Romney” to “Likely Romney.” There were some minor changes within the categories, but the map is relatively static at this point.  Initially, I would note that any bounce that Romney would receive from the Republican Convention will not show up until next week's review of the race. Likewise, any bounce that Obama receives from the Democratic Convention will not show up until I post in two weeks. This is due to the fact that it takes the polls some time in the various states to start showing any movement and generally it is agreed that a week after an event, the polling will reflect any movement in the race.

As for the lack of movement in the race since I've been doing this, I would only suggest that it is largely due to the fact that most of the impressionable electorate has not engaged in this race yet. Surely there are a lot of people who are following this race on a day-to-day basis, but those people are generally the ones who have already made up their mind and/or are political junkies like me. They say that the general election starts in earnest after Labor Day, so it's very appropriate that I would be talking about this issue on that day. Ultimately, over the next two weeks as we see the results of any convention bounces and whether the polls start to move, this will tell us if that axiom has some truth.

Next week, I'll try and do a wrap-up of the two conventions and where I think this sets the race for the remainder of the general election.