As you can see from the picture, it all starts with a blank map tomorrow night. In prepara-tion for Election Day, I thought I'd share a
few final thoughts and things to be looking for as you watch the coverage on
election night.
1.
More 2004
Similarities: For those of you who have been reading this election analysis
all along know that I have been drawing many comparisons to the 2004 election
between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Here are a couple more to add to the
list: Yesterday I was watching NBC's Meet
the Press and they released the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and
it found Obama leading Romney by a margin of 48% to 47%. And what was the final
NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in 2004? You guessed it – Bush was leading
Kerry 48% to 47%.
If Obama does repeat Bush's performance and gets
reelected, then there is another similarity as well. You may have heard over
the weekend that the Washington Redskins have been a predictor for presidential
elections over the years. The predictor is as follows: if the Redskins win
their last home game before the election than the party that currently controls
the White House will win the election and conversely, if the Redskins lose than
the challenging party will win. Since 1940, this predictor has been right 17
out of 18 times. The one time it was wrong? Once again, you guessed it – 2004
when the Redskins lost to the Packers, but President Bush was reelected.
2.
Early
State Results: At 7:00 EST, polls will close in six different states –
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia & Vermont. I fully
expect the networks will call Kentucky, South Carolina and Vermont shortly
thereafter as Kentucky and South Carolina are in the “Safe” Romney category and
Vermont is in the “Safe” Obama category. I would be shocked if Virginia is
called for either side before any real results start coming in as it has been a
clear tossup state throughout this entire race. However, the more interesting
states that will be closing first are Georgia and Indiana. Both of these states
are in the “Likely” Romney category and I would expect they would be called
relatively early in the evening. However, I will be paying especially close
attention to how quickly Indiana is called. It was a state that went for Obama
in 2008, but the president has not really contested it in this cycle. If it is
called immediately for Romney, that is clearly a good sign for the Republicans,
but if it lingers throughout the evening, that could be a sign of a long
evening for the Romney campaign.
On the flipside, there are no real comparable Obama
states that would give a similar indication until you get to 9:00 EST which is
when the polls close in Minnesota and New Mexico. These are both states that
are in the “Likely” Obama category and have had similar poll numbers to Georgia
and Indiana. If there is a lack of calling these two states shortly after they
are closed, that could portend poorly for Obama.
3.
FLOHVA:
I mentioned that Virginia closes polls at 7:00 EST and this is the first of the
major battlegrounds that could potentially get called. As I said in my
prediction post yesterday, Romney will most likely need to sweep FLOHVA in
order to win. If you don't believe me, just look at where Romney is spending
his last full day of campaigning: he was in Florida this morning, then he goes
to Virginia and then he goes to Ohio before finishing the day in New Hampshire.
All three of these states close their polls relatively early in the evening as
Ohio closes at 7:30 EST and Florida closes its final polls at 8:00 EST. Many of
Florida's polls will actually close at 7:00 EST, but since the Florida
Panhandle is in the central time zone, those polls remain open until 8:00 EST.
All this raises good point, whenever I'm talking about polls closing, I am
using the time at which point ALL polls are closed in a state.
4.
Poll
Closing Times in the Battlegrounds: As for the 11 battleground states that
I have previously identified, the polls will close in these 11 states at the
following times (all times EST):
7:00 – Virginia
7:30 – North Carolina, Ohio
8:00 – Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
9:00 – Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin
10:00 – Iowa, Nevada
As I've said all along, these are the states to watch and
obviously as they start to get called we will have a better idea of who the
next president will be. North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan are the ones
that should be the easiest to call as North Carolina has been trending towards
Romney and Pennsylvania and Michigan towards Obama. If it gets late in the
evening and any of these states has not been called, that is bad news for the
candidate who is expected to win that state.
5.
Poll
Closings for Senate Battlegrounds: On Saturday, I provided my predictionfor the Senate races as well. As a reminder, below are the poll closing times
for those states that I think will determine which party controls the upper
chamber in Congress. Once again, all times are EST and as with my Senate chart,
I have labeled the states in blue if there currently controlled by the
Democrats and in red if there currently controlled by the Republicans and the asterix
behind the state name indicates that it is an incumbent that is running.
7:00 – Indiana, Virginia
8:00 – Maine, Massachusetts*, Missouri*
9:00 – Arizona, Wisconsin
10:00 – Montana*, Nevada*
I have added Maine to this list only because the
significance it could have if independent candidate Angus King does win as
expected. If he does, I doubt he will indicate a preference for which party he
will caucus with, but it will be interesting to see if you can read anything
when and if he does give a victory speech.
6.
Turnout
in States Affected by Hurricane Sandy: How the states of Connecticut, New
Jersey and New York respond to the devastation from Hurricane Sandy and provide
for polling places might be an interesting story. In fact, I would guess that
turnout will be lower in these three states, especially New Jersey and New
York. While I do not expect this to affect who wins these states, it could
impact the larger popular vote total. Obama is expected to win all three of
these states and if he ends up winning the Electoral College, but turnout has
been suppressed in these three states than it is a very real possibility that
Sandy may cause a split decision and Romney pulls out a popular vote victory.
If you read my prediction post yesterday, you know that I thought about
predicting a split decision. While I do not think it will happen, the most
likely scenario if it did occur would be Obama winning the Electoral College
and Romney winning the popular vote and Hurricane Sandy might be the culprit if
it does occur.
7.
Is 11:00
Really the Midnight Hour? In looking at when all the polls close, I went through
a scenario of what the map might look like on election night. Unless there is
some big surprise and one of the key battleground states gets called early in
the evening, Romney will probably have the electoral vote lead for most of the
evening. However, that lead might turn into a pumpkin at 11:00 EST. That's
because there are 78 electoral votes in the states of California, Hawaii,
Oregon and Washington that will most likely go into Obama's column at 11:00 EST when those
states’ polls close. In fact, while I doubt it will happen, if Obama gets to
192 electoral votes or higher prior to 11:00 EST, then the race is over as
those 78 electoral votes will put him over the top. So if you're rooting for
Romney and you see an electoral vote lead early in the evening, just remember
the lesson of Cinderella as 11:00 just might be your midnight hour.
8.
Victory
Speech: Whoever wins on Tuesday will have a difficult road ahead of him as
the country is clearly divided and Congress will most likely be divided with
Republicans controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate. This
means that whoever is elected president will have to deal with the other party
to get things done. You could have an honest debate about which of the two
candidates is best equipped to do this, but there is no escaping the fact that
there will need to be some bipartisanship to accomplish any agenda.
Additionally, it's clear to me that barring something unforeseen on election
night, neither candidate will be able to claim a mandate for his election. Therefore,
if we do get a victory speech early Wednesday morning, then I am very
interested to see what tone the victor takes. Will he be humble in accepting
his victory recognizing that he does not have a clear mandate and must try and
repair a divided nation? Or will he take a tone where he misreads the election
and tries to claim a mandate?
Well those are my final thoughts and things to look for
on election night. Check back tomorrow as if there is anything that develops
before the polls are closing, I'll try and post. Likewise, if there are any
final changes in my categories for the states, I will also report that. Once
again, Happy Voting!!